Thursday, May 15, 2014

New North Korean Helicopter Frigates Spotted via RECON SATELLITE

Summary
Recently, commercial satellite imagery has identified two new North Korean helicopter carrying frigates. These are the largest surface combatants constructed by the DPRK’s Korean People’s Navy (KPN) in 25 years and appear to be primarily designed to counter what Pyongyang sees as a growing threat from South Korea’s acquisition of submarines that began in the early 1990s. Moreover, these vessels may have an important secondary role: the protection of fisheries in the West and East Seas, which has obvious important security implications for the Republic of Korea, Japan and China. Their introduction into the North Korean fleet may also represent an evolutionary step in the development of naval strategy to include helicopter anti-submarine operations.
Construction began in 2006-07 and both ships were launched during 2011-12. However, it is unclear whether they have been commissioned and are ready for service. Nevertheless, should the KPN push aggressively to commission and operate these new vessels, it will still likely take several years to fully integrate their new capabilities into fleet operations.
The construction of these vessels and other new classes of naval combatants over the past decade has been achieved during a period of prolonged and expanding international economic sanctions against North Korea as well as almost weekly media reports of its military decline, and national economic and industrial stagnation. North Korea’s deployment of new helicopter frigates may be an important wakeup call not only about the overall effectiveness of sanctions in constraining Pyongyang’s conventional military programs, but also the need to carefully and realistically reevaluate reports of its conventional military decline.
North Korea’s Naval Expansion Program: A New ASW Helicopter Frigate
During the late 1990s, as North Korea was emerging from a prolonged period of famine, floods and economic collapse, the Korean People’s Navy initiated a modest but wide-ranging modernization and shipbuilding program. That program included:
  • Introduction of 14.5 mm and 30 mm Gatling-gun close-in-weapon-systems (CIWS) to replace old single- and twin-mount systems on existing patrol vessels
  • Construction of a class of small catamaran-hulled fast patrol craft with at least two subclasses (PCF and PCFG)
  • Construction of a class of very slender vessels (VSV) with at least three subclasses including patrol (PCF) and high-speed infiltration landing craft (HILC)
  • Construction of a anti-submarine warfare helicopter frigate (FFH)
Of particular note, the KPN attempted for the first time to incorporate a degree of stealth technology in the design and construction of the catamaran-hulled fast patrol craft and very slender vessels.
Figure 1. Location Map
A key component of this program was a new ASW helicopter frigate. The KPN’s interest in such vessels dates back to the late-1970s when it began design of the helicopter carrying Soho-class guided missile frigate (FFGH). The design of this vessel was unusual and may have reflected indecision on the part of the KPN as to the vessel’s mission. The frigate had a catamaran-type hull, a flight deck that could accommodate one Mi-4PL ASW helicopter, four RBU-1200 anti-submarine warfare rocket launchers, depth charges, four SS-N-2 Styx anti-ship cruise missiles, a 100 mm gun for surface warfare and various air-defense weapons. The hull was laid down in June 1980 at the No. 28 Shipyard in Najin (Rajin), launched in November 1981 and commissioned in May 1982.
The vessel design was not successful, reportedly having problems with seaworthiness. As a result, only one was constructed and it passed the majority of its career in port, only occasionally venturing out to sea and never far out into the East Sea. Despite reports during the late 1980s that the North acquired new Soviet ASW helicopters, there is no evidence they were used on this vessel. During the 1990s, the vessel was moved to the Singyo-ri Patrol Base on the east coast and in the mid-2000s underwent refitting and its landing deck was refurbished. The vessel spent most of its remaining career at Singyo-ri until June-July 2007 when it was moved back to the No. 28 Shipyard in Najin and finally scrapped in mid-2009.
Figure 2. Soho-class FFGH, No. 823, seen at its Singyo-ri Patrol Base on North Korea’s east coast on November 5, 2006.
Note: image rotated. For all images, click to enlarge. Image © 2006 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing option, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Figure 3. A Mi-4PL ASW helicopter seen on the deck of Soho-class FFGH No. 823 sometime during 2004-2007.
Photo: KCTV screengrab.
New Helicopter Frigates
The failure of the Soho-class FFGH combined with the South Korean Navy’s aggressive long-term expansion of its submarine forces begun in the early 1990s, presented the KPN with a serious challenge given its declining antisubmarine warfare capabilities. Pyongyang was unable to address that challenge immediately because of economic hardship, but in the late 1990s, the KPN initiated a modest but wide-ranging modernization and shipbuilding program upgrading existing patrol craft as well as constructing a small catamaran-hulled fast patrol craft. That program eventually included a new class of small ASW helicopter carrying frigate (FFH) which is believed to have begun during 2006-07 with the decision to scrap the Soho FFGH. Design of the vessel was likely the responsibility of the Academy of National Defense Science’s Namp’o Ship Design Institute in cooperation with the Maritime Research Institute (a.k.a., Ship Research Institute), while the Second Economic Committee’s 6th Machine Industry Bureau oversaw construction.
Figure 4. The Namp’o FFH seen berthed at the Namp’o Shipyard on December 27, 2013.
Visible in this image are the flight deck with circular “H” helicopter landing zone and four probable RBU-1200 rocket launchers on the bow. Adjacent to it is one of the KPN’s new 30 m-class VSV stealth patrol craft. Note: image rotated. Image © 2013 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing option, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
 Figure 5. Another Namp’o FFH seen berthed at the No. 28 Shipyard in Najin on January 17, 2014.
As with the Namp’o vessel, visible are the flight deck with circular “H” helicopter landing zone and four probable RBU-1200 rocket launchers on the bow. Note: image rotated. Image © 2014 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing option, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Recent commercial satellite imagery spotted the two new FFHs, believed to have been built at the Namp’o Shipyard and the No. 28 Shipyard in Najin. The vessel located at Namp’o was laid down in early 2010 and launched in about October 2011. The vessel located at Najin was laid down in early 2011 and launched by June 2012. It is unknown if either vessel has been commissioned.
Imagery indicates the two vessels are identical, measuring approximately 76 m x 11 m with an approximately 29 m x 11 m flight deck and armed with a suite of ASW weapons including rocket launchers and a helicopter as well as what may be a close-in weapons systems to defend against anti-ship missiles and small anti-aircraft missile mounts. Given the KPN’s tendency to mount anti-ship missiles on its larger combatants, these vessels could be armed with a variant of the Chinese C-802 (e.g., Iranian Ghader) in the future. The configuration of the superstructure forward of the flight deck is suggestive of a small helicopter hanger but this remains to be confirmed.
Table 1. Estimated Characteristics, new North Korean FFH
Length 76 m
Beam 11 m
Displacement 1,300 tonnes
Draught 3.4 m
Armament 4 x RBU 1200 ASW rocket launchers
1(?) x 30mm CIWS
Helicopter 1 x Mi-4PL or Mi-14PL
While these vessels appear to have been designed for anti-submarine warfare and general patrol missions, they may also be used to protect fisheries in view of increasing pressure from South Korean, Chinese, Japanese and Russian fishing fleets.
Assessment
While it is too soon to reach an assessment of the capabilities of these two vessels, it is likely that their greatest potential weaknesses are in radar, sonar and electronic warfare capabilities and antiaircraft/antimissile defense since the North’s defense industry is known to have serious shortcomings in both areas. This suggests that Pyongyang may reach out to external partners such as China and Iran for technology or equipment to address these shortcomings. Regardless, should the KPN push aggressively to commission and operate these new vessels it will still likely take several years to fully integrate their new capabilities into fleet operations.
These two new vessels are the largest surface combatants constructed by North Korea in 25 years and represent a new capability for KPN. Their introduction suggests that Pyongyang sees the growing South Korean submarine fleet as a credible threat and may represent an evolutionary step in the development of naval strategy to include helicopter anti-submarine operations.
Additionally, the construction of these and other new classes of naval combatants during the past 15 years has been achieved during a period of prolonged and expanding international economic sanctions against North Korea as well as almost weekly media reports of its military decline, and national economic and industrial stagnation. North Korea’s deployment of new helicopter frigates may be an important wakeup call about the overall effectiveness of sanctions and the need to carefully and realistically reevaluate reports of its conventional military decline.

Thursday, May 1, 2014

ALERT**** ALERT****New Developments at North Korea’s Sohae Complex

Summary
Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea is conducting a number of significant activities at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (“Tongchang-ri”) related to the development of larger space launch vehicles (SLVs) and long-range ballistic missiles. Specifically, these activities are:
  • One and maybe more engine tests of what is probably the first stage of a KN-08 road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) were conducted in late March/early April 2014. With this latest activity, three KN-08 rocket engine test series have been identified for the first and possibly second stages dating back to mid 2013. As this effort progresses, the next technically logical step in the missile’s development would be a flight test of the entire system.
  • Continued modification of the gantry previously used to launch the Unha SLV intended to enable it to launch larger rockets of up to 50 meters in height. Construction may not be completed until early summer, effectively preventing a launch from the facility in the meantime.
  • New construction of what appears to be a circular structure with a diameter of about 40 meters and multiple interior walls. The purpose of the project—which has progressed rapidly over the past month, indicating a high priority—remains unclear, although the possibility that it is a new launch pad cannot be ruled out.
Figure 1. Construction underway at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station.
For all images, click to enlarge. Image © 2014 Airbus Defense and Space. All rights reserved. This image is not licensed for media usage.
Probable KN-08 Rocket Engine Test
Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea has conducted one or possibly more tests of what appears to be the first stage of the KN-08 road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile during a two-week period from March 22 to April 3, 2014. This conclusion is based on the following observations.
Activity at Missile Assembly Building: Imagery from March 22 shows a probable KN-08 first stage and its prime mover, a second stage and its prime mover, two white vans and a crane parked inside the fenced enclosure of the assembly building.[1] These rocket stages had either been delivered to Sohae by train or have been in storage at the facility (figure2). When this area was seen again on April 3, the first stage had been moved to the test area and only its prime mover and an unidentified truck were present.
Figure 2. Probable KN-08 stages and vehicles prior to movement to the test stand.
Image © 2014 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Engine Test Stand: Imagery from April 3 shows the first stage has been moved to the test stand, the site of the last suspected KN-08 engine tests in late August and December 2013 (figure 3). The stages tested appear to have the same dimensions—about 10 meters in length and 2 meters in diameter. Those dimensions are also the same as the stage observed at the assembly building on March 22. (The light blue color is identical as well.)
Figure 3. Tests of probable KN-08 first stage engines in late August 2013 and late March/early April 2014.
Images © 2013, 2014 Airbus Defense and Space. All rights reserved. These images are not licensed for media usage.
Aside from the movement of the stage from the assembly building to the engine test stand, imagery has identified three other indicators that it has been tested:
  • Fuel tanks appear in different locations indicating that the unloading of fuel and oxidizers that precedes a test has taken place. Before a test, fuel and oxidizers are delivered to the stand in tanks and then pumped into larger tanks that are enclosed by the buildings on each side of the pad. When that process is complete, the empty tanks are stored off the pad and picked up for shipment to a chemical plant to be refilled.
  • Stepped up vehicle activity on the pad is likely the result of a test in progress. Not only are fuel and oxidizer tanks delivered by truck and then removed, but the personnel who conduct these tests are transported to the pad. Vehicles also bring in the optical instrumentation needed to document the test and security vehicles close off the pad beforehand.
  • Differences inside the flame trench and on the ground just outside it are consistent with the conduct of an engine test. Inside the trench there appear to be differences in the texture of the material. Just outside the mouth, white paths or trenches to instrumentation positions have been partially covered by dirt, probably from the blast (figure 4).
Figure 4. Before and after photos of possible engine test.
Image left © DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com. Image right © 2014 Airbus Space and Defense. All rights reserved. This image is not licensed for media usage.
Launch Pad Gantry Modification Continues: No Launches Imminent
Construction of the upper platforms on the gantry used to launch the Unha SLV continues, as does work on the new bridge to the pad necessary to handle larger new launch vehicles. The swivel work platforms have not yet been put on the tower and as of April 3, are still being assembled on the launch pad. Since construction is still not complete, an SLV launch from this facility is unlikely, probably until early summer (figure 5).
Figure 5. Ongoing construction at the launch pad.
Image left © 2014 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com. Image right © 2014 Airbus Space and Defense. All rights reserved. This image is not licensed for media usage.
New Construction Underway
Imagery has identified new construction of an unusual structure on the top of a hill to the north of the assembly building and about 200 meters northeast of a ground clearing seen in earlier imagery. Activity began after March 6 and major excavation was observed two weeks later. By April 3, the foundations for a circular structure—about 40 meters in diameter with many interior walls—had been formed but not yet completed. Near the center is a twelve-meter walled circular opening that is not yet filled in. One possibility is that this area is a flame trench with an opening on the north side of the structure (figures 5 and 6).
Figure 6. New construction spotted in late March.
Image © 2014 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Figure 7. New unidentified structure being built.
Image © 2014 Airbus Defense and Space. All rights reserved. This image is not licensed for media usage.
The exact purpose of this project remains unclear since it is still in the very early stages of construction. The possibility that the facility is a new launch pad cannot be ruled out although the design would be highly unusual. For one thing, the number of symmetrical internal walls and trenches seem excessive for support of a level pad. However, they could provide support to a gantry and a secure anchor for the center section of the pad. Another factor to consider is that the roads and bridges leading to the construction area have either been rebuilt or strengthened to carry heavy vehicles that could be used for transporting rockets. (Such vehicles would be unnecessary for transport to other kinds of facilities such as an observation building or instrumentation site.)


 Measurements of the lengths of first and second stages seen near the assembly building are about 10 meters and 4.5 meters respectively, and both are about 2 meters in diameter. These compare favorably with the measurements of the KN-08 missiles shown in the 2012 and 2013 parades in Pyongyang that were 9.2 meters and 4.5 meters with diameters of about 2 meters as well as stages previously spotted at the Sohae engine test stand. It is also possible that the observed rocket engine could be the second or third or stage of a new large SLV under development.