INSIDE NORTH KOREA: March 2014

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

North Korea’s Nuclear and Rocket Test Sites: Activity Continues but No Sign of Test Preparations

North Korea’s Nuclear and Rocket Test Sites: Activity Continues but No Sign of Test Preparations.

Summary
Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s nuclear and rocket test sites indicates that while activities continue, there is no evidence to suggest preparations for impending nuclear or long-range rocket tests.

Excavation continues on a new tunnel in the West Portal area of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, but there is little or no activity at other key parts of the facility.
Construction continues at the gantry and launch pad at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (Tongchang-ri) where two launches of the Unha rocket were conducted in 2012. Work will not likely be complete for several months.
There is no test-related activity at the Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground (Musudan-ri), which was last used for testing in 2009. However, a large amount of building material has arrived indicating construction will soon resume on the new assembly building.

While there are no signs of impending tests, activities at the three facilities indicate that Pyongyang is increasing its ability to conduct future tests. In the case of Punggye-ri, the North is expanding the number of tunnels available for future nuclear tests. In the case of its rocket launch sites, construction at Sohae and Tonghae is intended to enable those facilities to handle larger rockets, and possibly mobile missiles, in the future.
Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site
Commercial satellite imagery from March 2, 2014 indicates that fresh spoil has been excavated from the new tunnel entrance that Pyongyang has been excavating since mid-2013. Since early February, the North Koreans have extended the mining cart track, and new spoil that appears grey has been deposited over the snow cover. Mining carts are visible on the tracks and probable vehicles are seen on the road in the vicinity of the new tunnel entrance. There is no apparent activity at the Central Support Area or the Southern Portal where two tunnels appear complete. In short, there are no indicators that a new test will be conducted in the next few months.

Figure 1. Excavation continues at the West Portal.

Sohae Satellite Launching Station (Tongchang-ri)
Imagery from March 6, 2014 indicates that modifications continue to the gantry tower and launch pad, which were used to launch the Unha rocket in 2012, to prepare them to handle larger space launch vehicles. The structures comprising the upper two work platforms that will be added to the gantry tower meant to increase its height are visible on the pad near the gantry. They have been laid out in 5 rows of 4 pieces each since January 2014. The crane on top of the gantry will be used to move these pieces into place. Construction is also progressing on a wider road leading to the modified pad along with what appears a widening of the pad. Work may continue for several months, ruling out the possibility that there will be a long-range rocket launch during that timeframe.

Figure 2. Construction continues on the Sohae Launch Pad.

In addition to construction at the existing pad, there is renewed activity at the site further north, which could be intended to launch mobile missiles. (Since construction is still in an early phase, it is not possible to make a final judgment on the purpose of this site.)

Figure 3. Resumption of construction at the possible mobile missile launch pad.

Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground (Musudan-ri)
Imagery from March8, 2014 indicates that there is no activity at the existing launch pad. At facilities that have been under construction, on and off for two years, the new launch control building is now externally complete. Moreover, there are nearly 20 stacks of supplies adjacent to the new assembly building where no work has occurred since October 2013, indicating that construction may soon start again soon at this site.

Figure 4. Renewed construction activities.

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

North Korea steps up missile launches in apparent protest over U.S.-South Korea military drills.

People watch a TV news program showing rockets launched by North Korea, at Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Sunday, March 23, 2014. North Korea launched short-range rockets into the sea off its east coast for a second straight day on Sunday — 16 this time, according to South Korean officials.

AP Photo/Ahn Young-joonPeople watch a TV news program showing rockets launched by North Korea, at Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Sunday, March 23, 2014. North Korea launched short-range rockets into the sea off its east coast for a second straight day on Sunday — 16 this time, according to South Korean officials.

North Korea launched short-range rockets into the sea off its east coast for a second straight day on Sunday – 16 this time, according to South Korean officials, in what’s believed to be Pyongyang’s way of protesting U.S.-South Korean military drills.

National Post GraphicsA total (and extensive) accounting of all of North Korea's conventional arms. Click through to see the full list.

The rockets flew about 60 kilometres early Sunday morning, said Col. Eom Hyo-sik, an official with South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff. That’s about the same range as the 30 rockets the North fired early Saturday. South Korea believes the North fired FROG rockets, which are unguided, old Soviet-developed missiles that Pyongyang has had since the 1960s.
Pyongyang claims its rocket launches are part of routine drills and self-defensive in nature, but there have been an unusual number this year – March has seen five launches so far – coinciding with annual, routine war drills by Washington and Seoul that North Korea claims are invasion preparation. Analysts say the impoverished North chafes against the annual drills because it has to spend precious resources responding with its own exercises.
A week ago, North Korea launched 25 rockets with a range of about 70 kilometres, South Korea said, and earlier this month a North Korean artillery launch happened minutes before a Chinese commercial plane reportedly carrying 202 people flew in the same area.
The Korean Peninsula remains officially at war because the Korean War ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty.
Meanwhile, the leaders of the U.S., South Korea and Japan are set to meet and discuss North Korea in the Netherlands next week while attending a nuclear security summit.

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

North Korea Ably Evades Its Sanctions

Recent inspections and seizures of banned cargo have shown that North Korea is using increasingly deceptive techniques to circumvent international sanctions, a panel of experts said in a report to the United Nations Security Council published Tuesday.

After a series of nuclear and long-range ballistic missile tests by North Korea over the past decade, the Security Council has adopted resolutions calling for increasingly vigorous sanctions aimed at crippling the North’s financial and technical capability to build weapons of mass destruction.

In its latest annual report, posted Tuesday on the United Nations website, the panel of eight experts said that North Korea has persisted in defying those resolutions not only by continuing its nuclear and ballistic missile programs but also by engaging in illegal arms trade.

“It is experienced in actions it takes to evade sanctions,” the panel said. “It makes increasing use of multiple and tiered circumvention techniques.”

The panel said the case of the North Korean cargo ship Chong Chon Gang had provided unrivaled insight into some of those techniques. The vessel was stopped by the Panamanian authorities in July 2013 while carrying undeclared weapons that had been hidden under 10,000 tons of sugar from Cuba.

An investigation showed that the North Korean crew had used secret codes in communications, falsified the ship’s logs and switched off an electronic system that would otherwise have provided real-time information on the ship’s location to the international maritime authorities, the panel said. It added that it suspected the North Korean embassies in Cuba and Singapore of helping to arrange the arms shipment.

The hidden cargo amounted to six trailers associated with surface-to-air missile systems and 25 shipping containers loaded with two disassembled MIG-21 jet fighters, 15 MIG-21 engines, and missile and other arms components, the panel said. Cuba has acknowledged that it was sending Soviet-era weapons to be repaired in North Korea.

The Chong Chon Gang case helped confirm that one of North Korea’s most profitable sources of revenue remains weapons exports, as well as technical support to manufacture and refurbish arms produced in the former Soviet Union in the 1960s and 1970s, the panel said.