Wednesday, March 26, 2014

North Korea’s Nuclear and Rocket Test Sites: Activity Continues but No Sign of Test Preparations

North Korea’s Nuclear and Rocket Test Sites: Activity Continues but No Sign of Test Preparations.

 

Summary
Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s nuclear and rocket test sites indicates that while activities continue, there is no evidence to suggest preparations for impending nuclear or long-range rocket tests.
  • Excavation continues on a new tunnel in the West Portal area of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, but there is little or no activity at other key parts of the facility.
  • Construction continues at the gantry and launch pad at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (Tongchang-ri) where two launches of the Unha rocket were conducted in 2012. Work will not likely be complete for several months.
  • There is no test-related activity at the Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground (Musudan-ri), which was last used for testing in 2009. However, a large amount of building material has arrived indicating construction will soon resume on the new assembly building.
While there are no signs of impending tests, activities at the three facilities indicate that Pyongyang is increasing its ability to conduct future tests. In the case of Punggye-ri, the North is expanding the number of tunnels available for future nuclear tests. In the case of its rocket launch sites, construction at Sohae and Tonghae is intended to enable those facilities to handle larger rockets, and possibly mobile missiles, in the future.
Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site
Commercial satellite imagery from March 2, 2014 indicates that fresh spoil has been excavated from the new tunnel entrance that Pyongyang has been excavating since mid-2013. Since early February, the North Koreans have extended the mining cart track, and new spoil that appears grey has been deposited over the snow cover. Mining carts are visible on the tracks and probable vehicles are seen on the road in the vicinity of the new tunnel entrance. There is no apparent activity at the Central Support Area or the Southern Portal where two tunnels appear complete. In short, there are no indicators that a new test will be conducted in the next few months.
Figure 1. Excavation continues at the West Portal.

For all figures, click to enlarge. Image © 2014 Airbus. All rights reserved. This image is not licensed for media distribution and cannot be used in any form by any media outlet.
Sohae Satellite Launching Station (Tongchang-ri)
Imagery from March 6, 2014 indicates that modifications continue to the gantry tower and launch pad, which were used to launch the Unha rocket in 2012, to prepare them to handle larger space launch vehicles. The structures comprising the upper two work platforms that will be added to the gantry tower meant to increase its height are visible on the pad near the gantry. They have been laid out in 5 rows of 4 pieces each since January 2014. The crane on top of the gantry will be used to move these pieces into place. Construction is also progressing on a wider road leading to the modified pad along with what appears a widening of the pad. Work may continue for several months, ruling out the possibility that there will be a long-range rocket launch during that timeframe.
Figure 2. Construction continues on the Sohae Launch Pad.

Image © 2014 Airbus. All rights reserved. This image is not licensed for media distribution and cannot be used in any form by any media outlet.
In addition to construction at the existing pad, there is renewed activity at the site further north, which could be intended to launch mobile missiles. (Since construction is still in an early phase, it is not possible to make a final judgment on the purpose of this site.)
Figure 3. Resumption of construction at the possible mobile missile launch pad.

Images © 2103 DigitalGlobe, Inc. (left) and © 2014 Airbus (right). All rights reserved. This image is not licensed for media distribution and cannot be used in any form by any media outlet.
Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground (Musudan-ri)
Imagery from March8, 2014 indicates that there is no activity at the existing launch pad. At facilities that have been under construction, on and off for two years, the new launch control building is now externally complete. Moreover, there are nearly 20 stacks of supplies adjacent to the new assembly building where no work has occurred since October 2013, indicating that construction may soon start again soon at this site.
Figure 4. Renewed construction activities.
Image © 2014 Airbus. All rights reserved. This image is not licensed for media distribution and cannot be used in any form by any media outlet.

 

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

North Korea steps up missile launches in apparent protest over U.S.-South Korea military drills.

North Korea steps up missile launches in apparent protest over U.S.-South Korea military drills.

People watch a TV news program showing rockets launched by North Korea, at Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Sunday, March 23, 2014. North Korea launched short-range rockets into the sea off its east coast for a second straight day on Sunday — 16 this time, according to South Korean officials.
AP Photo/Ahn Young-joonPeople watch a TV news program showing rockets launched by North Korea, at Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Sunday, March 23, 2014. North Korea launched short-range rockets into the sea off its east coast for a second straight day on Sunday — 16 this time, according to South Korean officials.
    North Korea launched short-range rockets into the sea off its east coast for a second straight day on Sunday – 16 this time, according to South Korean officials, in what’s believed to be Pyongyang’s way of protesting U.S.-South Korean military drills.
    National Post Graphics
    National Post GraphicsA total (and extensive) accounting of all of North Korea's conventional arms. Click through to see the full list.
    The rockets flew about 60 kilometres early Sunday morning, said Col. Eom Hyo-sik, an official with South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff. That’s about the same range as the 30 rockets the North fired early Saturday. South Korea believes the North fired FROG rockets, which are unguided, old Soviet-developed missiles that Pyongyang has had since the 1960s.
    Pyongyang claims its rocket launches are part of routine drills and self-defensive in nature, but there have been an unusual number this year – March has seen five launches so far – coinciding with annual, routine war drills by Washington and Seoul that North Korea claims are invasion preparation. Analysts say the impoverished North chafes against the annual drills because it has to spend precious resources responding with its own exercises.
    A week ago, North Korea launched 25 rockets with a range of about 70 kilometres, South Korea said, and earlier this month a North Korean artillery launch happened minutes before a Chinese commercial plane reportedly carrying 202 people flew in the same area.
    The Korean Peninsula remains officially at war because the Korean War ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty.
    Meanwhile, the leaders of the U.S., South Korea and Japan are set to meet and discuss North Korea in the Netherlands next week while attending a nuclear security summit.

    Wednesday, March 12, 2014

    North Korea Ably Evades Its Sanctions

     Recent inspections and seizures of banned cargo have shown that North Korea is using increasingly deceptive techniques to circumvent international sanctions, a panel of experts said in a report to the United Nations Security Council published Tuesday.
    After a series of nuclear and long-range ballistic missile tests by North Korea over the past decade, the Security Council has adopted resolutions calling for increasingly vigorous sanctions aimed at crippling the North’s financial and technical capability to build weapons of mass destruction.
    In its latest annual report, posted Tuesday on the United Nations website, the panel of eight experts said that North Korea has persisted in defying those resolutions not only by continuing its nuclear and ballistic missile programs but also by engaging in illegal arms trade.
    “It is experienced in actions it takes to evade sanctions,” the panel said. “It makes increasing use of multiple and tiered circumvention techniques.”
    The panel said the case of the North Korean cargo ship Chong Chon Gang had provided unrivaled insight into some of those techniques. The vessel was stopped by the Panamanian authorities in July 2013 while carrying undeclared weapons that had been hidden under 10,000 tons of sugar from Cuba.
    An investigation showed that the North Korean crew had used secret codes in communications, falsified the ship’s logs and switched off an electronic system that would otherwise have provided real-time information on the ship’s location to the international maritime authorities, the panel said. It added that it suspected the North Korean embassies in Cuba and Singapore of helping to arrange the arms shipment.
    The hidden cargo amounted to six trailers associated with surface-to-air missile systems and 25 shipping containers loaded with two disassembled MIG-21 jet fighters, 15 MIG-21 engines, and missile and other arms components, the panel said. Cuba has acknowledged that it was sending Soviet-era weapons to be repaired in North Korea.
    The Chong Chon Gang case helped confirm that one of North Korea’s most profitable sources of revenue remains weapons exports, as well as technical support to manufacture and refurbish arms produced in the former Soviet Union in the 1960s and 1970s, the panel said.

    Thursday, February 27, 2014

    A Brief History of the US-ROK Combined Military Exercises (SOUTH KOREA)


    A Brief History of the US-ROK Combined Military Exercises



    The militaries of every country conduct field and command post exercises to test their ability to perform missions dictated by their national leadership. Because three countries conduct such exercises regularly, numbering nearly two million soldiers in close proximity, the Korean peninsula experiences a heightened level of exercises—and tensions—that few other regions or countries share. Since the end of the Korean War, two antithetically opposed halves of one Korean nation have stood ready to attack or defend over a limited, mountainous terrain with massive armies with distinctly different capabilities and with the potential of killing hundreds of thousands of civilians in the early stages of a conflict.
    For the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United States, conducting exercises has required overcoming political, cultural, doctrinal and philosophical differences since the end of the Korean War to meet the North Korean threat from a combined posture. The history of US-ROK exercises is dominated by the evolution of the bilateral military relationship and this enduring threat, inter-Korean relations, and US-DPRK relations. The base justification for these combined exercises are the ROK-US Mutual Defense Treaty and the fact that the Korean peninsula remains in a state of war due to the signing of an Armistice Agreement in 1953 and not a peace treaty.
    Historical developments have dictated four distinct phases of military exercises and their political-military context on the Korean peninsula: the early phase lasting from the end of the Korean War to 1965; the “Second Korean War” phase of 1966-75; the expanded capabilities phase of 1976-91; and the asymmetric capabilities phase from 1992 to the present. The one constant in all four is the continued conduct by North Korea of annual winter training exercises, offensive in nature, that culminate in the early spring and bring the North’s military readiness to its maximum level for that year.[1]
    US-ROK exercises have both military and political intent. They, of course, are intended to test their preparedness and the ally’s ability to conduct specific missions—in this case, to counter North Korean military adventurism. But there is also a political message for Pyongyang, namely that the alliance is prepared to protect the state, people and territory of the Republic of Korea and their combined interests while employing all the elements of national power to do so.
    The Early Phase
    The alliance’s combined exercises are a direct result of the “Pusan Letter” of July 7, 1950, presented by then South Korean President Rhee Syngman to General Douglas MacArthur, that passed operational control of ROK military forces for defense against North Korea’s attack starting on June 25, 1950.[2] Then the Commander-in-Chief of US Far East Command, General MacArthur, passed operational control to his other command position, head of the newly established United Nations Command (UNC).[3] After the war ended with the armistice, the UNC Commander retained operational control of South Korean forces, thus compelling alliance exercises to be combined, though not precluding national exercises designed to maintain unit readiness at lower levels. After the signing of the Armistice, the US began a steady drawdown of forces and the South Korean military began to rebuild and reconstitute under a moribund economy that limited its capabilities.
    The early development phase was characterized by the ideological clash of communism vs. anti-communism, economic recovery that was initially more successful in the North than in the South, political instability in the South, and force-building on both sides. The first ROK-US combined exercise took place 16 months after the end of the Korean War in November 1955. The ROK Army 5th Corps and the US 5th Air Force conducted Exercise “Chugi,” or “Autumn Season,” under the supervision of the Tokyo-based US Far East Command, which supervised the UNC until 1957. Another exercise followed, designated “Spring Shower” and the two set the precedent for combined exercises that still exists today. Subsequent joint exercises, “Counterblow” and “Strong Shield,”[4] focused on interoperability and command relations between the two militaries, maintaining a basic readiness posture and conducting counter-insurgency operations.
    With the establishment of the US Unified Command Plan in 1957, the US Far East Command was replaced by the US Pacific Command and UNC headquarters moved from Tokyo to Seoul. After 1957 and up to the establishment of the Combined Forces Command in 1978, the UNC planned and led all combined exercises within the Alliance.
    The “Second Korean War” Phase
    North Korean provocations reached such a crescendo during the late 1960s that this period earned the reputation as a “second Korean War.” From 1966 to 1975, Pyongyang launched a steady series of provocations aimed at taking advantage of the US military commitment in Vietnam and the deployment of a corps-size ROK unit there to support that effort.[5] North Korea’s military technology was very limited during this period, relying on whatever equipment and technology the former Soviet Union and China were willing to provide and thus unable to develop distinct military advantages difficult for the alliance to counter. However, North Korea began to slowly relocate much of its active-duty military forces forward toward the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), thus reducing warning time and complicating battlefield defense strategies for the alliance.
    Casualties were heavy on both sides as a result of these clashes. Over one thousand ROK soldiers and policemen and 171 civilians died as a result of North Korea’s armed infiltration operations while 111 American soldiers were wounded and 75 killed in action. This included 36 airmen who died as a result of the North Korean shoot-down of a US Air Force EC-121M reconnaissance aircraft in 1969. Almost 300 North Korean infiltrators were killed in action inside South Korean territory.[6] Other major provocations during this period included the 1968 North Korean attempt to assassinate ROK President Park Chung-hee, known as the Blue House raid; another assassination attempt in 1974 that resulted in the death of the South Korean first lady; and the 1968 hijacking of the US Navy intelligence ship, the Pueblo.
    Beginning in 1968, the UNC revised its exercise program, replacing Counterblow and Strong Shield with “Focus Lens,” and also took advantage of the development of new approaches to war game simulations. One major response to lethal North Korean provocations took place during the first Focus Lens exercise of 1968 (infrequently referred to as Focus Retina). Three airborne infantry battalions from the 82nd Airborne Division flew 31 hours non-stop from North Carolina to drop south of the Han River in a show of how quickly the US could respond to North Korean hostilities.[7]
    The Expanded Capabilities Phase
    The period from 1976 to 1991 was characterized by an increase in the size of combined ROK-US exercises; the November 1978 establishment of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command (CFC), which assumed leadership and planning of all combined exercises (and continues to this date); the modernization of the ROK economy; and the dramatic expansion of the North Korean military to over one million men on active duty, as well as its continued deployment of forces in a forward posture.
    In 1976, the South Korean readiness exercises, designated Ulchi, and Focus Lens were integrated to create an expanded exercise that combined South Korean government and combined command post exercises for a broader approach to defense of the ROK. Held annually in late summer, Ulchi Focus Lens, or UFL, ultimately became the largest computer-assisted simulation exercise in the world.[8]
    Additionally, beginning in 1976, the alliance introduced a new exercise, dubbed “Team Spirit,” that emphasized force flow and force-on-force operations. The ability of the United States to flow forces to the Korean peninsula in case of conflict was a critical component of operational plans and also demonstrated a continued strong commitment to the defense of South Korea. Those forces would then exercise with major units opposing each other in simulated battle. Conducted in the early spring, Team Spirit served to unite several smaller exercises into one large one emphasizing field-maneuver. It grew over the years from an initial participation of 107,000 US and South Korean troops to over 200,000 in the late 1980s.[9]
    Because of its size, Team Spirit became a major concern for the North Koreans. It became a key issue in Washington-Pyongyang negotiations during the nuclear crisis of 1993-94. Visiting North Korean leader Kim Il Sung in 1993, New York Congressman Gary Ackerman stated that Kim’s voice “quivered and his hands shook with anger” at the mention of Team Spirit.[10]
    The combination of Ulchi Focus Lens and Team Spirit during this phase was a major step in the ROK-US alliance efforts to improve South Korea’s defense posture. However, toward the end of this phase, North Korean capabilities began to go “asymmetric,” namely by fielding of non-conventional weapons systems that were extremely difficult to counter with conventional forces. Most importantly, Pyongyang began programs to develop weapons of mass destruction and the systems to deliver them.
    The Asymmetric Capabilities Phase
    Beginning in 1992 and lasting until today, this phase is characterized by North Korea’s development of nuclear and missile programs; the deployment of long-range artillery north of the DMZ capable of striking all of Seoul and most of its suburbs; the fielding of 200,000 special operations troops; the high degree of nuclear tensions; the advancement of the North’s cyber warfare capability; and the transition of operational control of South Korean forces back to Seoul’s wartime control.
    Moreover, North Korea’s political stability during this period was significantly challenged by a failing economy and the great famine of the 1990s that took the lives of somewhere between 500,000 to 3,000,000 North Koreans, depending on which source is cited. This had a distinct impact on the stability of the North Korean regime and suggested scenarios in which the North Korean military could react in unpredictable ways that directly threatened South Korea. Would economic collapse cause the collapse of the North Korean regime? If so, could this lead to civil war that might spill over into the South? Would a failing regime order an attack on the South to avoid losing power?
    These changing conditions required changed responses intended to cope with important challenges such as dealing with a dramatically evolving threat, who is in the lead—ROK or US—and at what point in crisis, and how does interoperability change with different leadership?
    From 1991 to 1996, Team Spirit became both a carrot and a stick during US negotiations with North Korea over its burgeoning nuclear program. This exercise was cancelled in 1992, carried out again in 1993, and planned but not executed from 1994 to 1996 as a result of negotiations that led to the 1994 US-DPRK Agreed Framework and efforts to ensure the framework remained in effect. Team Spirit was then replaced with a command post exercise known as “Reception, Staging, Onward Movement, and Integration” (RSO&I)—which was conducted from 1994 until 2007 along with “Foal Eagle,” a series of tactical level exercises taking place in the spring. These exercises were much smaller than Team Spirit but maintained staff readiness in the conduct of flowing US forces to the peninsula.
    In 2007, RSO&I was replaced by “Key Resolve” (a command post exercise that trains staff instead of field units). Key Resolve and Foal Eagle (the exercise for field units) run near simultaneously and continue to be carried out. Ulchi Focus Lens continued until 2007 when it was succeeded by “Ulchi Freedom Guardian” (both command post exercises) to reflect changes of leadership within the alliance.
    The Future
    The legacy of the ROK-US combined exercises is not only vastly improved readiness in the defense of South Korea and the continued deterrence of large-scale conventional attacks by Pyongyang, but also North Korea’s healthy respect for the combined force posture of the alliance. For the future, there are a number of issues that may change how the allies conduct combined exercises. For example, the operational control of the South’s forces is scheduled to transition to the ROK in 2015, putting South Korea in charge of decision-making, and planning. Second, when and if North Korea is deemed capable of mounting nuclear warheads on delivery systems able to reach the United States, exercises will have to be adjusted to reflect the new requirements for defending American allies as well as the United States. These challenges to the alliance will require military and civilian dedication, supreme effort, artful leadership and not just a few dollars to accomplish.

    Friday, February 14, 2014

    LATEST INTEL: North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site Excavation Activity!

    North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site Excavation Activity!

     Significant Acceleration in Excavation Activity

     No Test Indicators


    Summary
    Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates a significant acceleration in excavation activity at the West Portal area since last viewed in early December 2013. The size of the pile of spoil excavated from a new tunnel appears to have doubled in a period of a little over a month. Exactly what accounts for this acceleration remains unclear. However, it is unlikely Pyongyang intends to use this tunnel for its next nuclear test since two other tunnels in the Southern area of the site appear complete. Because the Southern area is often covered in shadows during the winter, coverage by commercial satellites can prove to be spotty. As a result, it was not possible to view the tunnel entrances in the most recent February imagery.
    Once a decision is made in Pyongyang, indicators visible in satellite imagery of an impending nuclear test can appear 4-6 weeks prior to the test, both near the tunnel entrance and in other areas of the site. In the past, they have included:
    • Camouflage netting deployed to conceal activities at the tunnel entrance itself during preparations for a blast;
    • A satellite communications dish for relaying data off-site in the vicinity of the test tunnel;
    • A special vehicle covered by an awning and surrounded by many personnel in the central support/staging area; and
    • A marked increase in overall activity at the central support area and roads leading to the test tunnel.
    Based on the most recent satellite imagery, there are no signs that a test is in preparation.
    Accelerated Tunnel Excavation at the West Portal Area
    Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates a significant increase in excavation activity at a new still incomplete tunnel to be used for a future nuclear test in the West Portal area. As previously discussed, excavation of this new tunnel was first detected in May 2013 and continued throughout the year. Imagery from February 3, 2014 shows that the spoil pile—consisting of debris from excavation—apparently doubled in size from what was done during all of 2013. (Mining carts can be seen on the tracks to the spoil pile.) In fact, spoil recently dumped onto the pile spilled on the access road to the portal requiring that it be cleared.

    Figure 1. Spoil pile growth in 2014.


    As of December 2013, the volume of spoil was estimated to be some 2000 cubic meters. Assuming a two meter wide by two meter tall tunnel that would allow sufficient access but still minimize the amount of digging required, that volume of spoil would have corresponded to 500 meters of tunnel. Since December 2013, and especially in January, digging was accelerated and the spoil pile area appears to have doubled again, implying yet another 500 meters of tunnel dug. It must be recognized, however, that satellite imagery estimates are often imprecise because the depth of the spoil pile can only be roughly estimated.
    If these estimates are correct, they represent a significant acceleration of North Korean efforts since the beginning of 2014 to complete excavation of this new tunnel. There may be a number of possible explanations including: 1) the tunnel may have become easier to excavate because the rock is softer or looser; 2) the North Koreans may be trying to make up lost time to meet the tunnel’s scheduled date for completion; or 3) Pyongyang has decided to accelerate work in order to complete the tunnel ahead of schedule.
    Is a Test in the Works?
    In addition to the tunnel under excavation at the West Portal area, North Korea appears to have two completed tunnels at the South Portal area that could be used for a nuclear test if Pyongyang decided to conduct one. When last viewed in early December 2013 there were no signs of test preparations, although it is likely a test could be prepared in 1-2 months once the order is given by Pyongyang.
    According to press reports, South Korean Minister of Defense Kim Kwan-jin recently stated that the North appears ready to conduct another test although there are no signs that a blast is imminent. That assessment appears correct, although in the most recent February image, the entrances to the two completed tunnels in the South Portal area are in a deep shadow, as they will be for much of the winter, making it difficult to determine if any activity is taking place there.
    Based on observation of the previous North Korean nuclear tests in 2009 and 2013, once a decision is made in Pyongyang, indicators visible in satellite imagery of an impending nuclear test can appear 4-6 weeks prior to a detonation. Possible indicators—some at the entrances and some away from them—observed in past tests have included:
    • The North Koreans appear to have deployed camouflage netting to conceal activities at the tunnel entrance itself during preparations for a blast.
    • A satellite communications dish for relaying data off-site was present in the weeks prior to the February 2013 detonation and then removed ten days before the blast. A similar dish was present before the 2009 test in the vicinity of the test tunnel.
    • A special vehicle covered by an awning and surrounded by many personnel whose purpose was unclear was present in the central support/staging area on February 9, 2013, just four days before the detonation.
    • There was a marked increase in overall activity at the central support area and roads leading to the test tunnel in the weeks before the February 2013 blast. Such activity would be expected if North Korea were preparing for a detonation.
    As of the most recent satellite imagery there are no signs that a test is in preparations.

    Wednesday, January 29, 2014

    North Korea warns of tensions over U.S.- South Korea war games

    A North Korean Embassy official gestures to allow questions at a press conference by North Korean Ambassador to China Ji Jae Ryong, seated center, at the North Korean Embassy in Beijing, China, Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2014. North Korea’s propaganda machine is churning out near-daily diatribes against the United States and South Korea for a series of soon-to-start military maneuvers, warning nuclear war could be imminent and saying it will take dramatic action of its own if further provoked. Ji offered a somewhat less caustic line at a rare news conference on Wednesday. Ji told international media the north wanted to reduce tensions to allow steps toward reconciliation and eventual unification between North and South. Also in the photo are two translators and a North Korean photographer. (AP Photo/Alexander F. Yuan)


    A North Korean Embassy official gestures to allow questions at a press conference by North Korean Ambassador to China Ji Jae Ryong, seated center, at the North Korean Embassy in Beijing, China, Wednesday. Ji told international media the north wanted to reduce tensions to allow steps toward reconciliation and eventual unification between North and South.

    SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s propaganda machine is churning out near-daily denunciations of the United States and South Korea for a series of soon-to-start military maneuvers, warning nuclear war could be imminent and saying it will take dramatic action of its own if further provoked.
    Sound familiar?
    North Korea’s increasingly shrill opposition to the annual joint drills named Foal Eagle looks very similar to the kind of vitriol that preceded the start of the same exercises last year and led to a steep rise in tensions on the Korean Peninsula. That round of escalation culminated in threats of a nuclear strike on Washington and the flattening of Seoul before the maneuvers ended and both sides went back to their corners.
    It appears the first stages of this year’s battle have already begun — though some experts say they don’t think it will be as high-pitched as last year’s.


    In the latest of North Korea’s increasingly frequent salvos against the exercises, it said through its state-run media that the United States is building up its military forces in Asia so it can invade the country — formally called the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DPRK — and take control of the whole region.
    “It is the strategic goal of the U.S. to invade the DPRK, bring its neighboring countries under its control with it as a stepping-stone and, furthermore, dominate the whole Asia-Pacific region,” the ruling party’s Rodong Sinmun said in an analysis on Monday. “The U.S. is working hard to kick off large-scale joint military drills this year, too, for the purpose of mounting a pre-emptive nuclear attack upon the DPRK.”
    A North Korean man walks past propaganda posters in Pyongyang, North Korea last March. The posters threaten punishment to the "U.S. imperialists and their allies." North Korea’s propaganda machine is churning out near-daily diatribes against the United States and South Korea for a series of soon-to-start military maneuvers.

    A North Korean man walks past propaganda posters in Pyongyang, North Korea last March. The posters threaten punishment to the "U.S. imperialists and their allies." North Korea’s propaganda machine is churning out near-daily diatribes against the United States and South Korea for a series of soon-to-start military maneuvers.

    The invectives against the exercises began earlier this month, when North Korea’s powerful National Defense Commission proposed the rivals halt military actions and “mutual vilification” to build better relations. The North, however, strongly hinted it would maintain its nuclear weapons program while urging South Korea to cancel the drills with the United States, set to begin in late February.
    North Korea’s ambassador to key ally China offered a somewhat less caustic line at a rare news conference on Wednesday. Ji Jae Ryong told international media that North Korea wants to reduce tensions to allow steps toward reconciliation and eventual unification between North and South.


    “First, we propose taking preparatory measures in response to the warm call for creating an atmosphere for improving North-South ties. In this regard, we officially propose the South Korean authorities take critical measures of halting acts of provoking and slandering the other side from Jan. 30,” Ji said.
    But Ji reiterated that North Korea had no intention of abandoning its nuclear weapons program.
    Seoul-based analyst Daniel Pinkston, of the International Crisis Group, said that although some experts saw the proposal as an overture or part of a “charm offensive” by North Korea, it was intended more as a means of setting the stage for more heated actions ahead — since the North has no reason to expect that Washington and Seoul would seriously consider nixing Foal Eagle.
    “It feeds into the propaganda cycle again,” he said. “It’s a way of showing the domestic audience that, ‘we made a serious overture. We tried to bend over backwards. But they showed their true colors.’ I don’t see any cooperative measures or charm offensive at all.”
    U.S. Special Representative for North Korean Policy Glyn Davies, left, talks with South Korean Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Kim Kyou-hyun during their meeting at the Foreign Ministry in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday.

    U.S. Special Representative for North Korean Policy Glyn Davies, left, talks with South Korean Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Kim Kyou-hyun during their meeting at the Foreign Ministry in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday.


    Seoul and Washington have essentially ignored North Korea’s proposal.
    Seoul instead demanded that North Korea take “practical” action for nuclear disarmament if it truly wants peace on the peninsula. But Seoul has proposed working-level talks on Wednesday to discuss allowing Koreans separated by the 1950-53 Korean War to reunite. North Korea didn’t immediately respond to Seoul’s proposals.
    The fighting between North and South Korea ended six decades ago with an armistice, not a peace treaty, leaving the peninsula still technically in a state of war. North Korea remains highly sensitive to all military activity in the South, and sees Seoul as a puppet state because nearly 30,000 U.S. troops are based on its soil.
    This year’s drills, in which troops will train on land, sea and in the air, are expected to last until about April.
    Yoo Ho-yeol, a professor of North Korea studies at Korea University in South Korea, said he doesn’t expect as much tension as last year.
    “North Korea is maintaining its nuclear weapons program but hasn’t launched any fresh provocation, so this year’s drills would be more like the routine ones they conducted in previous years,” he said.

    Tuesday, December 3, 2013

    A South Korean Propaganda Radio Station!

    A South Korean Propaganda Radio Station!

    Driving up South Korea’s “freedom highway” north of Seoul, just after the turn off for the National Defense University, observant travelers will notice a collection of transmitter masts off to the right of the highway.
    At first glance, the site looks like it might belong to a major broadcaster like KBS, but the truth appears to be much more interesting.
    Seeing inside the site is impossible from the highway, but a neighboring hill provides a good outlook, as shown below.
    The site contains 16 transmitter masts, all but one of which are contained in a large field. A single mast sits in the middle of neighboring greenhouses.
    131124-radio-02
    On the north side of the facility (the left side of this picture) are a series of buildings. These almost certainly house the transmitters that produce the signals that are piped to the masts.
    131124-radio-03
    As can be seen in the above picture, the site is surrounded by a high fence topped with barbed wire. There’s also a guard post at the edge of the facility where the road enters. The road itself contains barriers placed to slow approaching traffic and notices to motorists.
    131124-radio-04

    131124-radio-05
    The fences, guard posts and road blocks all point to the facility being somewhat sensitive. The main KBS shortwave transmitter site at Gimjae in the south of the country doesn’t have the same level of security. Neither does an MBC transmission facility a little further north along the highway.
    The sensitivity of the site is confirmed with a check of satellite pictures of the field.
    Here’s how it looks on Google Maps:
    A satellite image of the transmitter site shown on Google Maps
    A satellite image of the transmitter site shown on Google Maps
    The transmitter masts and buildings can be easily seen.
    And here’s the same field on Daum Maps:
    A satellite image of the transmitter site shown on Daum Maps
    A satellite image of the transmitter site shown on Daum Maps
    The image on Daum, a South Korean portal, has been altered so that none of the transmitter masts or buildings appear. It hasn’t been done perfectly — a few of the shadows cast by the masts can be seen — but it’s a pretty effective effort at removing any details of the facility.
    South Korea routinely edits satellite pictures of military installations just as it restricts digital maps of areas near the border, so this is pretty close to confirmation that the radio facility is a sensitive government facility.
    But what is it used for?
    For the answer to that, a radio provides a clue.
    Among the roughly dozen shortwave radio stations that broadcast to North Korea, there are two that don’t have websites, they don’t have listings and can’t be found in official literature.
    “Voice of the People” and “Echo of Hope” have been on the air for years, broadcasting an anti-regime program that goes further than other stations in attacking the North Korean government and leadership.
    Both stations have long been assumed to be run by the National Intelligence Service and are heavily jammed by North Korea.
    The North Korean jamming, which involves broadcasting a very powerful noise signal on the same frequency, makes the South Korean stations difficult to receive. It’s is so powerful that it even overrides their signal on radios in Seoul, across the sea in Japan and even in the United States.
    But close to this mystery transmitter site, the North Korean jamming signal cannot be heard over “Voice of the People.” The signal of the South Korean station is strong and clear. It’s so strong, it overloaded my radio:
    In comparison, here’s what it typically sounds like anywhere away from this location. The following file was recorded in Seoul.
    The conclusion? The transmitter site is almost certainly the base from which the South Korean government broadcasts the “Voice of the People” propaganda station towards North Korea.
    It’s worth noting “Echo of Hope,” the second propaganda station, was received poorly at this location. That means that it probably comes from a different site.